Twitter’s International Intrigue

Sometimes Twitter seems unstoppable.

No matter what the news event, tweeting now plays a key role. Once dismissed as a pedestrian toy for the bored to record what they had for lunch, the social network is now part of the media and political bloodstream.

On Sunday, Twitter users managed to circumvent a French embargo on election results to tell the world that Nicolas Sarkozy had been booted from the presidency. The tweeters used code names to avoid running afoul of the law. Sarkozy was either Rolex (his opulent lifestyle with Carla Bruni) or the wine Hungarian Tokaji (his pere is Hungarian). Francois Hollande, France’s incoming president, was called Gouda cheese, among other things. The hashtag: #radiolondres, for a BBC World War II service.

The reason for the subterfuge: France imposes fines up to $99,000 for releasing election results before 8 p.m.

Days earlier, Twitter users also outsmarted the Chinese regime as the case of dissident Chen Guangcheng played out during Hillary Clinton’s visit to Beijing.

Chinese authorities tried to isolate Chen in a hospital after he changed his mind about remaining in the country and sought permission to come to the United States. In the past, China has been able to choke off the information flow when necessary, in part through its strict censorship of the Internet.

As The Washington Post reports: “It was Chen’s friend Zeng Jinyan, another activist, who first informed the world via Twitter that Chen had been left alone by U.S. officials at the hospital and was afraid. Zeng also tweeted that thugs in Shandong province, where Chen is from, had threatened to beat his wife to death.”

The strength of Twitter is in its speed, its ubiquity and, most of all, its resourceful users.

Which brings me to Twitter’s much larger rival, Facebook.

The road show for its IPO begins today. Last week brought word that once the stock goes public, Facebook could be valued at as much as $90 billion.

The figure is simply eye-popping. The New York Times has a market cap of $885 million. General Motors is valued at $35 billion, less than half of Facebook’s potential worth—even though Mark Zuckerberg’s creation doesn’t make cars, tires, hubcaps or much of anything.

Now I wouldn’t underestimate the value of its 900 million worldwide users. For many of them, Facebook has become indispensible. But therein lies the rub.

The stock can only stay sky-high if most of those users remain engaged, sharing information and photos with friends (and now with subscribers, a recent change that makes Facebook more like Twitter). But as the brief popularity of MySpace and Friendster made clear, sometimes the digital mob moves on. There was a time when everyone was on AOL and brightened to the sound of “you’ve got mail!” Now, not so much.

If Facebook (which recently bought Instagram) can stay new and fresh and relevant, the stock will be worth every penny. But not if it is eventually eclipsed by Twitter…or Tumblr or Google Plus or some newfangled network that some kid in a garage has yet to dream up.