Scott Brown Comeback: Don’t Believe The Media Hype
It’s happening. John Kerry will be the next secretary of State. But does that mean the media should regard Scott Brown as a shoo-in to return to the Senate?
After days of hype following Susan Rice’s announcement that she was withdrawing from consideration for the position, it was finally leaked that Barack Obama would name the Massachusetts senator and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry. Political reporters took note: A special election in the Bay State next year! Except that Democrats didn’t fare too well the last time that happened, after Ted Kennedy’s death, when Brown pulled out a surprising win. The result has Democrats panicking that Kerry’s elevation means an extra Republican in the Senate.
Listen up, media elite: this isn’t 2010. Then, Brown based his campaign on denying Obama his 60th Senate vote while running against an underwhelming candidate, state Attorney General Martha Coakley. It also didn’t help the election took place in January, when turnout was very low and Republicans were energized to show up.
This time, Democrats aren’t taking Brown for granted and the political environment has changed. Brown (or any other Republican) would have to play defense on issues like the debt ceiling, gun control or a possible Supreme Court vacancy. Plus, Brown has changed since 2010. After losing a bruising race against Elizabeth Warren, Brown has been redefined as a relatively partisan Republican, not a non-political guy driving around the state in a pickup truck while wearing a barn jacket.
If Brown wants to continue in politics, a far better option for him is to succeed Gov. Deval Patrick in 2014. Massachusetts has a long history of electing Republican governors (including Mitt Romney), and Brown would be far better able to cast himself as a non-ideological problem solver with messy social issues removed from his purview. It also saves him from having to run yet again for a full Senate term in 2014. But 2014 is too far away for the campaign-deprived press corps.
The media will likely continue to hype a Scott Brown candidacy as a number of Democratic congressman, all of whom are flush with money, contemplate running in a special election. It makes a good story for the press, it just doesn’t make sense for Brown.
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